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The Republican Perspective. Republicans believe that Democrats are backing themselves into a corner. They are confident that they have the easier message to the public. Republicans will argue that they want to keep the government funded and that Democrats are preventing that from happening. Ironically, this message is one that traditionally has been used by Democrats in past government funding fights. Should there be a government shutdown, the Trump administration will have wide discretion to make determinations around essential and non-essential activities. That authority could mitigate the impact and political costs of a shutdown while giving the administration greater leeway to shut down programs and activities it doesn’t like. Concern about the latter prompted Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to relent on supporting a funding extension in March. He subsequently faced harsh pushback from the Democratic base.

Republicans will argue that they are acting in good faith on government funding and will point out that there are separate bipartisan negotiations on the ACA tax credits.

The Democratic Perspective. Of the 24 million Americans who are enrolled in health care under the ACA, 22 million benefit from the enhanced credits. Republican states top the lists of both the average monthly ACA subsidy and the total number of people receiving it. If these credits expire, there could be large increases in health insurance premiums for millions. Particularly when combined with funding cuts and other changes to Medicaid enacted as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill, that impact could imperil Republican seats in the midterm elections. Democrats are confident that this prospect gives them leverage to get Republicans to include some extension of these credits.

Many Democrats also believe Republicans bear most of the political risk of a shutdown since they control both Congress and the presidency.

See the latest Washington Weekly for more on this topic, and other issues under the dome.