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The main event in Washington as Congress returns is the fight to fund government operations. It appears that Congress will come well short of passing all 12 appropriations bills by the 30 September deadline when funding runs out. Without an extension, there will be a government shutdown on 1 October. This means that Congress will need to reach an agreement on a continuing resolution to keep the government funded. Since a funding bill will need 60 votes to overcome procedural hurdles in the Senate, this will need to be bipartisan. However, tensions are high. Democrats and some Republicans have misgivings about the Trump administration's use of pocket recissions to unilaterally claw back funding already approved by Congress. Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY) also caught flak from his own party for supporting an extension of government funding earlier this year. Further complicating discussions is the expiration of public health extenders, the national flood insurance program, farm bill programs, and others. These will need to be dealt with as part of any agreement on government funding.

With the negative political environment and little time to address these issues, there is a fair chance of a government shutdown, in our view.

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