Retail real estate

ICSC conference highlights the resiliency of the leasing and transaction markets

We think the key theme from ICSC 2025 is that the Retail Real Estate sector is looking to power through recent uncertainty related to tariffs and consumer health. Activity levels at the conference were elevated, driven by increased volumes of leasing and transaction conversations. Industry participants remain enthusiastic given the group has bounced back from COVID and navigated several significant bankruptcies while improving portfolio quality. That said, our sense is that a level of uncertainty hangs over leasing discussions. In particular, we believe leasing conversations are more measured than they were 60 days ago as retailers digest how their businesses will be impacted by tariffs and a more careful consumer. Overall, our take is that Retail Real Estate will go through some minor growing pains. Several bankruptcies in one year in combination with the tariff uncertainty could drive a bit of a slowdown. Digestion is natural, especially considering the strength of the last few years. That said, we see this as more temporary than long-term in nature. Things can change quickly. Midterm elections are around the corner. Thus, even if there is some near-term choppiness, we remain biased to the upside in the intermediate-term.

Tenant health is both an opportunity and a risk

Several tenant categories and individual retailers remain in focus among landlords. Given elevated occupancy and high mark to market rents, additional space to lease in the strong environment could be a longer-term positive for landlords.

  • Shoes: One executive was particularly cautious on the shoe category due in part to the lack of skilled manufacturing labor for this product type outside of China.
  • Full-service restaurants: It’s hard to generalize traffic and sales trends for full-service restaurants. We spoke to one landlord who identified full-service restaurants experienced a sales drop in 1Q'25 by -3% with another landlord seeing a decline of -6%. That said, this comes after several years of growth.

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