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The Senate confirmed several Trump administration nominees to serve as US Ambassadors and approved House-passed resolutions to repeal Biden administration rules on appliance energy efficiency standards. The House passed separate resolutions to repeal Biden administration rules on vehicle emissions, energy, fish and wildlife regulations.

The Senate will continue to vote on Trump administration nominees and resolutions repealing Biden administration energy regulations. The House will vote on a bill to prohibit the Department of Homeland Security from providing funds to American universities who have ties to China and a bill to codify the Gulf of America.

Reciprocal Discussions.

We are now 23 days into the 90-day pause that the Trump administration put on reciprocal tariffs. The Trump administration has been engaged in negotiations with various trading partners to test the waters on what they’re willing to do in order to have the US reduce or even eliminate the often-punitive reciprocal tariffs. Since tariff levels often are already low with many of these trading partners, the Trump administration is also looking at concessions in other areas, including the reduction of non-tariff barriers, commitments on investments in the US and measures to pressure China (limits on trade content from China and the imposition of controls on certain exports and/or investments from China). These are all thorny and complicated issues that need to be addressed across a variety of discrete bilateral negotiations. Limited progress has been made in these bilateral discussions to date, and we expect this process to last longer than the allotted 90 days.

China.

The US continues to be locked in a trade war with China. Although the Trump administration at times has said that there have been meaningful high-level interactions between the two sides, that does not appear to be the case. The Trump administration is interested in de-escalating, but neither side wants to blink first. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has argued that China is more vulnerable because it exports many more goods to the US than the US does to China. However, the public body language from China is mostly defiant. Both sides recognize that the current high level of tariffs is unsustainable (145% tariffs on most imports from China and 125% tariffs on most US imports), but even reducing tariff levels to half of current levels would continue to block trade. A mutual reduction in tariffs is possible, but China will want a dramatic reduction in current tariff levels that go further than where the Trump administration is currently willing to go. It’s unclear what sort of meaningful concessions the Trump administration could get in return, though the future of TikTok continues to hover in the background. The Senate this week approved former Senator David Perdue to be the US Ambassador to China, so the Trump administration at least will soon have its person in Beijing. There needs to be de-escalation, but the standoff has no clear off-ramp at this point.

One Big Beautiful Bill.

The House this week started crafting a comprehensive tax and spending bill that likely will be the main thrust of President Trump’s legislative accomplishments before the mid-term elections next year. Republicans are trying to advance the bill via the expedited but complicated procedure of reconciliation, which allows a bill to advance in the Senate with a simple majority. The bill will include an extension of the 2017 individual tax cuts, other tax provisions and additional funding for administration priorities (including immigration enforcement and defense). There is a scramble to offset the high cost of the tax cuts and additional spending (the extension of the tax cuts will cost an estimated $4.5 trillion over 10 years) with large spending cuts (including contentious changes to Medicaid) and tax revenue raisers. Eleven House committees have jurisdiction over this bill. Seven of them passed their parts out of committee this week while the remaining four committees will have the next few weeks to advance their bills. The goal is to pass this overall bill out of the full House before Memorial Day. Efforts then will move to the Senate where the reconciliation process is more complicated than in the House. Get ready for a busy few months that will be very important for President Trump and his legacy.

Debt Limit.

President Trump would like to include an increase to the debt ceiling as part of the previously discussed reconciliation bill. This is important for him tactically because approving it on a standalone basis (instead of part of reconciliation) would require him to make concessions to Democrats to get their support. There is some fluidity here as lawmakers are awaiting Treasury Secretary Bessent to announce the estimated date at which Congress must act in order to avoid default on US debt obligations. This date, known as the “X date,” will serve as a de facto deadline for Congress to act. Republican leadership will use this date to help drive passage of the larger reconciliation bill. Pay attention to news about the debt ceiling as it is important to the Trump agenda.

An Executive President.

There is no doubt that President Trump has hit the ground running with a flood of executive actions and tariff announcements over his first 100 days. President Trump has issued over 140 executive orders covering a wide range of areas, including energy, trade, federal employment and national security. Trump has wielded presidential authority with sweeping force in a rapid pace, becoming the first president to issue 100 executive orders in a year since President Truman in 1952. Despite having Republican control of Congress, his administration does not have significant legislative achievement to this point. Only five bills have been signed into law (one was an extension of government spending and three others were repeals of Biden administration rules). While this is fewer than that of any modern president at this point, the lack of legislative activity has not been an obstacle to Trump making an early mark. The popularity and success of all of these executive actions – individually and cumulatively – will continue to be determined.

Ukraine Agreement.

The US and Ukraine signed an agreement this week over US access to Ukraine’s critical minerals, which are used in military applications, energy production, phones and digital products. China is currently a primary source of critical minerals and last year banned the export of some of these minerals to the US. The agreement does not provide Ukraine with a security guarantee that it has sought, but it does provide Ukraine with some commitment on military aid and creates an investment fund that will use at least part of its proceeds to help rebuild Ukraine (there is also no provision on requiring Ukraine to pay back previous US military aid). The US and Ukraine were close to agreement back in February, but that was put on hold after a contentious public meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump has been pushing for a month-long ceasefire to provide sufficient runway to reach a peace deal to end the war. The Trump administration already has made territorial concessions to Russia, but those have not been sufficient to bring Russia to the bargaining table. There also is growing support in the Senate for bipartisan legislation that would impose additional sanctions on Russia and any country doing business with Russia if the war is not ended. While Russia will have a temporary ceasefire next week, there does not seem to be any near-term catalyst for ending the current bloody stalemate.

De Minimis No More.

The Trump administration's decision to eliminate the "de minimis" exemption for goods under $800 to enter the US duty-free from China has sent ripples through the e-commerce landscape. Starting today, packages from China will face a 120% tariff or a flat fee of $100 per item (set to increase to $200 on June 1). This policy shift targets platforms like Shein and Temu, which have over 150 million combined daily users in the US. In response, both companies have announced price hikes (in many cases more than doubling the price of items) and are detailing the cost that tariffs add to the purchase price. The administration argues the move will help combat illicit drug imports and level the playing field for US businesses. However, critics argue it disproportionately affects low-income Americans who depend on affordable imports. Removing the de minimis exemption will be one of the first “new” tariffs that consumers directly feel and may be a canary in the coal mine on the willingness of Americans to accept short term price increases for the promise of rebalancing the trade landscape.

DOGE Legacy.

As we previously reported, Elon Musk will be stepping back from his leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the coming weeks. While Musk’s departure will impact his direct influence, the effort to continue to implement significant budget cuts and personnel changes among federal agencies will persist. Since it began in late January, DOGE has cut or reduced billions of dollars in government contracts, leases and grants in over 176 departments and agencies. It also has cut the federal workforce by about 130,000 employees, with more planned reductions on the horizon. An expected 12% of the 2.4 million civilian federal workers are expected to be affected. The DOGE worldview is reflected in Republican efforts to reduce federal spending as part of the reconciliation effort. Even with Musk’s exit, Congress and the Trump administration will continue with DOGE efforts to downsize federal departments and agencies.

Trump’s Report Card.

As President Trump surpasses his first 100 days back in office, public approval of his job paints a familiar yet complicated picture. His initial post-inauguration approval surge peaked at +7.5%, but it has swiftly reversed course and now sits at -9.7%, which is nearly identical to where he stood after 100 days in 2017. However, the political landscape is markedly different this time: Trump still enjoys overwhelming loyalty among GOP voters, with 96% of self-identified strong Trump supporters in 2024 still firmly in his corner. His erosion instead reflects broader public discontent on his handling of the economy (-14.3%), trade (-20.5%), and inflation (-22.6%). These issues were strengths that helped him make big gains with wide-ranging demographic groups and propelled his return to the White House. Republicans in Congress have little incentive to distance themselves from the president currently, but, with midterms on the horizon, continued ailing numbers on core economic issues could test the unity of what has become Trump’s party.