capitol building

This Week:

The Senate approved various Biden administration judicial nominees and failed to move forward with a comprehensive bill to provide both foreign aid and immigration reforms (see below). The House failed to pass a resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (see below) and a bill to provide military aid to Israel (see below).

Next Week:

The Senate will work on advancing foreign aid legislation (see below) and continue to vote on Biden administration nominees. The House may vote again on a resolution to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas and on an energy permitting package.

The Lead

Moving Parts.

Efforts to pass a broad bill that combined immigration reforms and funding with military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan hit a brick wall this week. Although this will not advance as a single package, there was a lot of activity on these issues this week in the House and Senate, as we outline below.

  • Comprehensive Foreign Aid Bill and Southwest Border Reforms. After weeks of negotiations, a small and bipartisan group of Senators produced a comprehensive package that included a compromise on immigration reforms. That approach was rejected in a Senate vote this week. While Republicans prefer to tie the foreign aid funding to immigration reforms to address the chaos on the southwest border, most of them objected to the immigration reforms in the compromise as not strong enough. Some Democrats, meanwhile, viewed the reforms as too stringent. The broad bill pairing the foreign aid with immigration reforms is now dead, and it’s hard to envision a path forward for Congress to enact any such reforms in the near future (see our bullet below on the asylum process to outline some of the key disagreements preventing a more bipartisan compromise).
  • The Bill Minus the Border Reforms. Shortly after voting down the broad funding bill, the Senate had a procedural vote to advance legislation to provide $95 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan without the more contentious southwest border provisions. Almost all Democratic Senators were joined by 17 Republicans in the 67-32 vote to advance the bill to a final vote, probably next week. It could take days for the Senate to work through amendments and finally pass the bill, but the bigger question is whether the House will take up this bill. It would likely get a majority vote in the House, but it would split Republicans, most of whom value immigration reforms more than the foreign aid. Passing a foreign aid bill that isn’t offset by other federal spending (adding it to the deficit/debt) and doesn’t include immigration reforms isn’t an outcome that Republicans would favor. Moreover, it very likely would trigger a motion to remove the Speaker from his role, producing more political chaos in that chamber. The path forward for the foreign aid, particularly Ukraine, still looks very murky and uncertain.
  • Aid to Israel. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) tried to separate the $17.6 billion in aid to Israel from the broader funding bill since it has the support of a clear majority of House members. However, the chamber was unable to pass this measure. This vote doesn’t reflect antipathy toward Israel. It reflected the desire of many House Democrats (who primarily voted against the measure) to keep the ingredients of the broader aid package together rather than separating them. Aid to Israel is still paired with aid to Ukraine in the current Senate bill, but it may need to be separated again if Republican lawmakers balk at the funding for Ukraine.
  • Impeaching the Border Chief. In a somewhat surprising turn, the House was unable to pass a measure to impeach Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Four Republicans joined all House Democrats in opposing the measure. The dissenting House Republicans don’t approve of Mayorkas’ performance, but they don’t believe it rises to the high threshold that impeachment requires (treason, bribery and “other high crimes and misdemeanors”). Indeed, Secretary Mayorkas has been the poster child of dysfunction at the southwest border for many lawmakers. Even if House Republicans take another vote and impeach him, this measure would not advance in the Senate.
  • Troubled Asylum Program. The long-established process through which non-US residents try to obtain asylum in the US is at the heart of the debate on immigration and a key focus of the border reform package defeated this week. This program allows some immigrants to seek protection from alleged persecution in their home countries and obtain citizenship in the US. Most immigrants who have crossed the southwest border over the past year have sought asylum status. The number of people seeking such status has outstripped the ability of immigration judges to assess their claims. Once there is a significant gap in the time asylum is sought versus the time a judge can consider it (which can be years), the immigrant is allowed to stay in the US. A high number of those immigrants do not appear for the future court cases and become part of a growing population of illegal immigrants.

Other Issues in Play

Taxes and Hurricanes.

Last week, we highlighted the major provisions of a tax package that passed the House and is now awaiting Senate consideration. There are other noteworthy provisions in the bill about which clients and colleagues had questions this past week. One provision would provide relief to individuals impacted by federally declared disasters (including hurricanes, wildfires, floods and the train derailment in Ohio) going back to February 26, 2021. Impacted taxpayers would be able to deduct their expenses related to these disasters on their taxes without itemizing deductions. Senate Republicans are interested in making changes to the overall bill, particularly the Child Tax Credit and its work requirements. While the prospects for the tax package and its contents remain in flux, the provision relating to disaster deductions is not controversial and will likely remain in any final package.

AM Radio Flexing Its Muscles.

A group of bipartisan lawmakers are working to advance legislation that would require AM radio to be installed in any new motor vehicles built in or imported to the US. The bill reflects an interest in maintaining the outlet’s emergency communications. Some car companies have stopped providing AM access in their new cars, particularly electric vehicles (EVs). The electronic motors in EVs can interfere with AM radio signals and render AM stations unlistenable. According to the National Association of Broadcasters, over 80 million people listen to AM radio monthly and there are over 4,500 AM radio stations across the US. Just short of half of all the House and Senate members are co-sponsors of this legislation. The legislation is not yet teed up for a vote in either the House or Senate, but it could be considered later this year if supporters can continue to expand support for it and keep momentum for it high.

Outbound Investment Debate.

There continues to be a lot of debate in Congress regarding different approaches to addressing national security concerns from China’s efforts to bolster military capabilities through advanced technologies associated with the US. Last year, the Biden administration issued a proposal that would develop a notification system for investments involving sensitive technologies and would prohibit transactions from the US in a smaller subset covering semiconductors, quantum technologies and artificial intelligence. In a recent House hearing, lawmakers debated the efficacy of these and other policy options. While a bipartisan group of lawmakers favor a sector-by-sector approach to investment screening that aligns with the administration’s proposal, many House Republicans favor a competing approach that would direct the Biden administration to impose sanctions on specific Chinese companies of concern. With those differences, the prospects for legislation remain challenged. We expect the Biden administration to move ahead with its outbound investment screening proposal (and is considering issuing another proposal to restrict the transfer of Americans’ personal data), but even that will need to go through a protracted process to finalize and actually implement it.

The Final Word

Replacing Santos.

Next Tuesday will feature the first competitive House election of the cycle, a contest to replace former Congressman George Santos (R-NY). This suburban seat in New York has high stakes for both Republicans and Democrats, as reflected in the nearly $22 million of combined spending. Republicans can ill-afford to lose another seat in the House given their incredibly narrow margin. Their candidate, Mazi Pilip, is considered a top tier candidate and has an inspiring story as an Ethiopian-born and past member of the Israeli military. So far, she’s run on the same messages that allowed Republicans to overperform in New York in 2022, hoping to put Democratic candidate, former Congressman Tom Suozzi, on his back foot. Suozzi is playing defense on the immigration issue but has come out in support for stronger border protections. Additionally, Suozzi is a known quantity in the district and has sought to separate himself from Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY), whose policies remain unpopular in the district. This slightly-leaning Democratic district is exactly the type of district that Democrats need to win if they hope to retake the House. A single House race can’t forecast the future, but this race will be an important bellwether to determine which party controls the House next year.